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The Keys to the White House adalah buku te … The Keys to the White House adalah buku terbitan tahun 1996 mengenai sistem prediksi terhadap pemilihan presiden di Amerika Serikat. Sistem ini terilhami oleh penelitian gempa bumi, dikembangkan pada tahun 1981 oleh sejarawan Amerika Serikat Allan Lichtman dan ilmuwan Rusia, .erikat Allan Lichtman dan ilmuwan Rusia, .
, The Keys to the White House è un libro del … The Keys to the White House è un libro del 1996 su un sistema di previsione in grado, secondo gli autori, di determinare l'esito delle elezioni presidenziali negli Stati Uniti. Il sistema, ispirato dalla ricerca sui terremoti, è stato sviluppato nel 1981 dallo storico americano Allan Lichtman e dal geofisico russo Vladimir Keilis-Borok.dal geofisico russo Vladimir Keilis-Borok.
, The Keys to the White House is a predictio … The Keys to the White House is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States. It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapting prediction methods that Keilis-Borok designed for earthquake prediction. The system is a thirteen-point checklist that concerns the circumstances of a presidential election. When five or fewer items on the checklist are false, the incumbent party candidate is predicted to win the election. Some of the items on this checklist involve qualitative judgment, and therefore the reliability of this system relies heavily on the knowledge and analytical skill of whoever attempts to apply it. Using his own system, Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcomes of all presidential elections from 1984 to 2020, with the exception of the 2000 election. From the content of the system, Lichtman concludes that voters select the next president mainly on how they feel the incumbent president has governed the country. If the voters are satisfied with the condition of the country, they will re-elect the incumbent president, or whoever from his party runs in his stead. If the voters are dissatisfied, they will transfer the presidency to the rival party. The election campaign has little if any meaningful effect on the voters. Voters are pragmatic and are not swayed by the spectacle of campaigning. Whether the voters are correct to blame to president for the country's specific problems is another matter; the point is that the election campaign is irrelevant. Voters vote retrospectively, not prospectively.s vote retrospectively, not prospectively.
, As Chaves da Casa Branca é um sistema de p … As Chaves da Casa Branca é um sistema de previsão para determinar o resultado das eleições presidenciais nos Estados Unidos que foi desenvolvido pelo historiador americano e pelo geofísico russo em 1981. Com este sistema, Lichtman previu corretamente os resultados de todas as eleições presidenciais de 1984 a 2020, com exceção de 2000.ciais de 1984 a 2020, com exceção de 2000.
, «Ключи к Белому дому» (англ. The Keys to t … «Ключи к Белому дому» (англ. The Keys to the White House) — книга 1996 года о системе предсказания результатов выборов президента США. Данная система была разработана в 1981 году американским историком Аланом Лихтманом и российским ученым В. И. Кейлис-Бороком, специалистом по предсказательным математическим моделям. Модель имеет историю точных предсказаний, однако подвергается критике некоторых ученых из-за того, что в неё включены слишком много допущений, и из-за того, что она предсказывает только победителя выборов, а не процент голосов победившей партии.в, а не процент голосов победившей партии.
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The Keys to the White House è un libro del … The Keys to the White House è un libro del 1996 su un sistema di previsione in grado, secondo gli autori, di determinare l'esito delle elezioni presidenziali negli Stati Uniti. Il sistema, ispirato dalla ricerca sui terremoti, è stato sviluppato nel 1981 dallo storico americano Allan Lichtman e dal geofisico russo Vladimir Keilis-Borok.dal geofisico russo Vladimir Keilis-Borok.
, The Keys to the White House adalah buku te … The Keys to the White House adalah buku terbitan tahun 1996 mengenai sistem prediksi terhadap pemilihan presiden di Amerika Serikat. Sistem ini terilhami oleh penelitian gempa bumi, dikembangkan pada tahun 1981 oleh sejarawan Amerika Serikat Allan Lichtman dan ilmuwan Rusia, .erikat Allan Lichtman dan ilmuwan Rusia, .
, The Keys to the White House is a predictio … The Keys to the White House is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States. It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapting prediction methods that Keilis-Borok designed for earthquake prediction. The system is a thirteen-point checklist that concerns the circumstances of a presidential election. When five or fewer items on the checklist are false, the incumbent party candidate is predicted to win the election. Some of the items on this checklist involve qualitative judgment, and therefore the reliability of this system relies heavily on the knowledge and analytical skill of whoever attempts to apply it. Using his own system, Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcomechtman has correctly predicted the outcome
, As Chaves da Casa Branca é um sistema de p … As Chaves da Casa Branca é um sistema de previsão para determinar o resultado das eleições presidenciais nos Estados Unidos que foi desenvolvido pelo historiador americano e pelo geofísico russo em 1981. Com este sistema, Lichtman previu corretamente os resultados de todas as eleições presidenciais de 1984 a 2020, com exceção de 2000.ciais de 1984 a 2020, com exceção de 2000.
, «Ключи к Белому дому» (англ. The Keys to t … «Ключи к Белому дому» (англ. The Keys to the White House) — книга 1996 года о системе предсказания результатов выборов президента США. Данная система была разработана в 1981 году американским историком Аланом Лихтманом и российским ученым В. И. Кейлис-Бороком, специалистом по предсказательным математическим моделям. Модель имеет историю точных предсказаний, однако подвергается критике некоторых ученых из-за того, что в неё включены слишком много допущений, и из-за того, что она предсказывает только победителя выборов, а не процент голосов победившей партии.в, а не процент голосов победившей партии.
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The Keys to the White House
, Ключи к Белому дому
, As Chaves da Casa Branca
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